MISO Analyzes Impacts to Coal, Renewables Resulting from Emissions Reductions

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) predicts that efforts to reduce utility-sector emissions will result in major coal retirements in the future and the need for significant changes in renewable development, regardless of the fate of the CPP in the courts.  The findings, presented at MISO’s March 16, 2016 Planning Advisory Committee meeting, are the results of the next phase of MISO’s CPP analysis.  While the study’s initial phase focused on the specific emissions reduction targets and compliance options associated with the CPP, MISO’s midterm analysis takes a broader tack, aimed at understanding impacts on generation and transmission under various emissions reduction scenarios.  The analysis presented last week focuses primarily on issues associated with coal retirements and renewable build-out.

MISO modeled three different emissions reduction scenarios—partial CPP (17% decrease in 2030 emissions from 2005 levels), final CPP (34% decrease in emissions from 2005 levels), and accelerated CPP (43% decrease in 2030 emissions from 2005 levels)—and analyzed expected coal capacity retirements under each.   According to MISO’s analysis, costs would be minimized under the partial, final, and accelerated CPP scenarios where the coal retirement level is 8-11 gigawatts (GW), 16-21 GW, and 24-30 GW, respectively.   However, even under the partial CPP case, MISO predicts total costs will exceed $238 billion.

MISO’s analysis also discussed key results of a study analyzing transmission and resource expansion driven by carbon emissions reduction targets performed by Vibrant Clean Energy. The study modeled 30% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the MISO footprint from 2005 levels by 2030, 50% by 2036, and 80% by 2050.  Takeaways include:

  • While the current MISO resource mix can be re-dispatched to meet a 30% emissions reduction target when complemented with modest wind and solar build-out, the need for additional wind and solar build-out significantly increases as the reduction target becomes more stringent.
  • Increasingly stringent reduction targets are expected to drive coal capacity off the system at roughly the same rate regardless of the rate at which transmission infrastructure in the region is expanded.  Natural gas capacity trends were also not expected to be impacted by transmission expansion.
  • Expansion of transmission infrastructure will facilitate deployment of renewables across the MISO region.

MISO intends to utilize the results of its study to inform transmission expansion planning efforts moving forward, and plans to discuss how to do so at its upcoming MTEP17 Futures Development Workshop on March 30, 2016.

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Twenty States Ask the Supreme Court to Vacate the MATS Rule

Last week, twenty states filed a petition for a writ of certiorari, Docket No. 15-1152, asking the Supreme Court to reverse the D.C. Circuit’s decision to remand the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) without vacating the rule.  The petitioners (the States of Michigan, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming and three Texas agencies) foreshadowed that they would be filing for cert in their February application for an interim stay of the Rule; the stay application was denied by Chief Justice Roberts.

At issue is the question of whether, “[w]hen an agency promulgates a rule without any statutory authority, may a reviewing court leave the unlawful rule in place?”  The petitioners answer this question in the negative, and ask the Court to vacate the MATS rule in its entirety.

Petitioners allege, among other things, that the D.C. Circuit’s decision not to vacate the rule “conflicts with … and effectively thwarts” the Court’s decision in Michigan v. EPA, 135 S. Ct. 2699 (2015).  In Michigan v. EPA, the Court reversed the D.C. Circuit’s ruling upholding MATS and remanded the case back to the lower court on the grounds that EPA acted unreasonably when it deemed cost irrelevant to the decision to regulate power plants and that EPA must consider costs, including cost of compliance, before deciding whether regulation is appropriate and necessary.  The Court did not opine, at that time, whether the rule should be vacated, and after full briefing and oral argument, the D.C. Circuit remanded the decision to EPA without vacating the rule.

Petitioners further claim that there is a circuit split on this issue, citing to Fifth and Eighth  Circuit decisions vacating agencies’ rules that were found to be “in excess of statutory authority.”

Responses to the petitions are due on April 15, 2016.

In the meantime, EPA is moving forward with its consideration of costs and is scheduled to issue its cost determination in April 2016.  Further, on March 17, 2016 EPA finalized certain changes and clarifications to the final MATS rule.

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States Tackle Net Metering

On the topic of grid modernization, perhaps no issue is as active, or as contentious, as net metering.  In general, net metering allows retail customers who generate their own energy (typically residents with rooftop solar panels) to be compensated for transferring excess generation back to the grid.  The controversy stems from questions about how much these customers should be compensated and whether, or how, these customers should pay for their use of the grid.  These questions are playing out in states across the country, including in legislatures, public utilities commissions, and courts.  Some recent developments include:

Arizona.  In Arizona, the issue of net metering has been especially contentious for years, and there’s no indication it’s going away anytime soon. Currently the Arizona Corporation Commission is considering a general rate application of UNS Electric, Inc. This application includes residential demand charges, designed to recover fixed costs based on customers’ use of the grid, which has attracted opposition from solar advocates, such as the Alliance for Solar Choice, and support from the dominant utility in Arizona, Arizona Public Service.  Sessions for public comments are scheduled for later this month.

California.  In California, several entities, including utilities, are seeking rehearing of the recent decision of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that largely continues the existing net metering program and orders utilities to pay retail rates for energy exported back into the grid. Central to these rehearing requests is whether or not the CPUC’s decision complied with the state legislature’s 2013 requirements in state law A.B. 327, particularly those requiring the CPUC to evaluate the costs and benefits of net metering. The CPUC has discretion over whether to grant rehearing, and parties will also be able to seek judicial review after the CPUC either denies rehearing or issues a decision on rehearing.

Florida.  The issue of net metering is currently pending before the Florida Supreme Court. A ballot initiative to amend the Florida Constitution would establish a constitutional right for customers to “own or lease solar equipment installed on their property to generate electricity for their own use”; however, it also contains a provision “to ensure that consumers who do not choose to install solar are not required to subsidize the costs of backup power and electric grid access to those who do.” Some supporters of net metering, who failed to get a competing solar-related amendment to qualify for the 2016 ballot, claim that this amendment would actually obstruct renewable energy in Florida.  Last week, the Florida Supreme Court heard oral arguments as part of its review of whether the proposed amendment can appear on the 2016 ballot. The court must determine whether the proposed amendment addresses only one issue, as required by the Florida Constitution, and whether the ballot language is misleading.

Hawaiʻi. In October 2015, the Hawaiʻi Public Utilities Commission issued a decision and order implementing major reforms to net energy metering (NEM). While existing NEM customers can still receive retail rates for energy they export and are not subject to these changes, new customers will have to choose between two options: a self-supply option and a grid-supply option.  Under the self-supply option, customers would be able to use solar to meet their own energy needs and be permitted to export a limited amount of energy to the grid, but they would not be compensated for any export.  Under the grid-supply option, customers would be able to export excess energy to the grid in exchange for energy credits that are worth less than those available to existing NEM customers.  The Alliance for Solar Choice challenged this order, arguing that the Hawaiʻi Public Utilities Commission failed to follow proper procedures. Recently a Hawaiʻi Circuit Court judge dismissed this challenge.

Nevada.  Net metering has been such a hot topic in Nevada that it has attracted the attention of several 2016 presidential hopefuls. In December, the Nevada Public Utilities Commission issued an order that decreased the rate paid to consumers who export power back into the grid. In January, the Commission rejected requests to stay the order, but later that month reopened the proceeding on the issue of whether existing customers’ rates would be grandfathered.  Then in February the Commission rejected requests to grandfather existing customers’ rates and ordered that new rates to be implemented gradually over a twelve year period.  In response, a new Nevada group has formed to attempt to get a net metering-related petition on the November 2016 ballot.

New Hampshire. The New Hampshire House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would raise the cap on net metering from 50 megawatts to 100 megawatts.  The New Hampshire Senate had previously passed a similar bill increasing the cap to 75 megawatts, and now Governor Hassan has urged the Senate to concur with the House version.

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Commissioner LaFleur Expresses Concern about Infrastructure Development

On March 4, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued an order accepting a notice of termination of a Generator Interconnection Agreement for a wind farm.  The Generator Interconnection Agreement was to allow a 150 MW wind farm (to be constructed by Merricourt Power Partners, LLC) to access the transmission system of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO).  Commissioner LaFleur’s dissent expanded the discussion to FERC’s broader role in infrastructure development.

The agreement at issue had a commercial operation date of December 1, 2012. The wind farm has not been constructed, though, and in August 2015, Merricourt filed a complaint at FERC seeking assurance that this interconnection service would still be available when its project was ready to operate.  Merricourt noted that under its agreement with MISO, MISO could try to terminate the agreement on December 1, 2015 (three years after the commercial operation date listed in the agreement).  Merricourt alleged that it had a construction plan and schedule to achieve an amended commercial operation date of December 31, 2016.  FERC denied the complaint in October as premature.  Then in December, as Merricourt predicted, MISO filed a notice of termination of the Generator Interconnection Agreement due to the delay.

Merricourt argued, among other things, that it had made substantial progress toward development (including funding almost $18 million in network upgrades that are operational) and that MISO had granted extensions to other projects in similar circumstances.  FERC disagreed and accepted the notice of termination.

Commissioner LaFleur dissented from this decision.  She argued that FERC had the discretion to consider whether an extension of the commercial operation date is appropriate, and that Merricourt was a case that warranted such an extension.  In addition to her specific concerns about Merricourt’s circumstances, she noted that her dissent is the “latest in a series … in which [she has] expressed concern about the Commission’s refusal to exercise its discretion in individual cases addressing infrastructure development.”  According to Commissioner LaFleur, in failing to give developers like Merricourt more time, FERC may be creating “unnecessary barriers to … development.”

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President Obama and Prime Minister Trudeau Discuss Climate Change

Last week, President Obama welcomed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the Canadian delegation’s first official visit and state dinner in almost 20 years.  During the visit, the two leaders released a U.S.-Canada Joint Statement on Climate, Energy, and Arctic Leadership.  Among other things, this statement emphasizes the role that carbon markets can play in achieving climate-related targets and that the two countries commit to working together to “support robust implementation” of related provisions in the Paris Agreement.

President Obama and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau discussed this Statement at a press conference in the Rose Garden last Thursday (transcript available here).  Prime Minister Trudeau highlighted the common goal of a clean growth economy.  He announced joint efforts to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, reduce use and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, and implement greenhouse gas standards for heavy-duty vehicles, as well as a new economy in the Arctic, as detailed in the Joint Statement.

The Prime Minister’s visit also included a state dinner, at which Prime Minister Trudeau offered a toast, noting “we are all in this together” when it comes to climate change.

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