EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Projects Rise in Energy-Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have been trending downward since 2007, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that this may change next year.  In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA projects that energy-sector CO2 emissions will rise slightly in 2018.  According to EIA, energy-related CO2 emissions fell in 2015 and 2016, and projections suggest 2017 will likewise see a decline in these emissions.  The projections for 2018, however, do not square with the downward trend, and instead predict a slight rise in emissions by about 2.2%.  In its report, EIA states that the anticipated emissions increase is attributable to various factors, including: an increase in total power generation, an increase in energy-related CO2 emissions from petroleum, natural gas; and coal expected to total 111 million metric tons; a slight increase in coal’s forecast generation share; and a decrease in expected hydropower generation by 5 billion kilowatt-hours—too large a decline for wind, solar, and nuclear generation to offset.

Additional data, highlights, and visualizations from the report are available here.

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