Climate Change Indicators in the United States

Last week EPA released the fourth edition of its publication Climate Change Indicators in the United StatesThe report explores 37 indicators of climate change.  It describes the significance of each indicator as well as the possible “consequences for people, the environment, and society.”

The 37 indicators are presented in six chapters as follows:

  • Greenhouse gases: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Forcing.
  • Weather and Climate: U.S. and Global Temperature, High and Low Temperatures, U.S. and Global Precipitation, Heavy Precipitation, Tropical Cyclone Activity, River Flooding, and Drought.
  • Oceans:  Ocean Heat, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level, Coastal Flooding, and Ocean Acidity.
  • Snow & Ice: Arctic Sea Ice, Antarctic Sea Ice, Glaciers, Lake Ice, Snowfall, Snow Cover, and Snowpack.
  • Health & Society: Heat-Related Deaths, Heat-Related Illnesses, Heating and Cooling Degree Days, Lyme Disease, West Nile Virus, Length of Growing Season, and Ragweed Pollen Season.
  • Ecosystems: Wildfires, Streamflow, Stream Temperature, Great Lakes Water Levels, Bird Wintering Ranges, Marine Species Distribution, and Leaf and Bloom Dates.

Among its findings, the report states that the electricity and transportation sectors are respectively the highest and second highest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.

EPA has also posted technical documentation about each indicator describing the data sources and analytical methods EPA used to develop the report.

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States Seek Extension of Comment Deadline on Clean Energy Incentive Program

The 27 states challenging the CPP have requested that EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy toll the closing of the comment period on the agency’s proposed Clean Energy Incentive Program (CEIP) until at least 60 days after the Supreme Court’s stay of the CPP is lifted (if the CPP survives judicial review).  Comments are currently due on September 2, 2016, which is a four-day extension from the initial comment date to align the public comment period with the public hearing submittal time frame.  According to the states, however, the September 2 deadline improperly compels “States to take action on a proposal that would not exist but for the [CPP].”  The states assert that extending the comment deadline is required by the stay, and would be consistent with the practice of other federal agencies and the notice and comment rulemaking process.

The CEIP is an optional program intended to incentivize early investment in certain renewable generation and demand-side energy efficiency projects in low-income communities.  Last week, on August 3, 2016, EPA held a public hearing [link eliminated] on the proposed rule in Chicago, Illinois.  EPA also hosted two webinars on the CEIP proposal earlier this summer, one for states and local agencies [link eliminated], and another for communities and environmental justice groups [link eliminated].

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CPP Celebrates a Birthday and California Releases Details About Its Proposed Implementation Plan

One year ago yesterday, the EPA released the Clean Power Plan.  Despite the uncertainty created by the judicial stay and ongoing litigation, some states are forging ahead with developing their implementation plans.  This week California became the first state to release to the public draft copies of its proposed CPP compliance plan and the environmental analysis performed for the proposed plan.  The draft plan has been prepared by California’s Air Resources Board (ARB) with assistance from an interagency working group that includes staff from the California Energy Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission.

California proposes to comply with the CPP through a mass-based, single-state plan that utilizes a “‘state measures’ approach, with the [existing] Cap-and-Trade Program as the state measure.”  Under this approach, units qualifying as covered electric generating units (EGUs) will be required to participate (or to continue participating) in the state’s Cap-and-Trade Program.  Starting with emission targets in calendar year 2022, the EGUs “will have a federally-enforceable obligation to comply with key Program requirements,” including that the unit “surrender emissions allowances equal to reported CO2 emissions, and meet monitoring and reporting requirements.”  Non-EGU participants in the market program will continue to have only state-enforceable obligations.

The plan also includes a backstop provision which will be triggered if the state’s annual emission targets are exceeded by 10%. Under the backstop provision—which is designed to bring the state into compliance within eighteen months—the ARB would create and distribute an additional pool of backstop allowances.  Affected EGUs will be required to retire allowances for each ton of carbon dioxide that is emitted during the backstop compliance period.  The backstop allowances may be traded among the affected EGUs, though they will not be auctioned.

The plan does not currently include a clean energy incentive program (CEIP) election. ARB is evaluating the CEIP and may take further action before finalizing its plan.

The comment period for the drafts will run from August 5, 2016 to September 19, 2016.  The ARB plans to hold a public meeting on September 22, 2016 at its office in Sacramento.

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CEQ Releases Guidance on Incorporating Climate Change Considerations into NEPA Review

UPDATED 08.05.2016 with link to Federal Register notice.

On August 2, the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) announced the release of Final Guidance for Federal Departments and Agencies on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in National Environmental Policy Act [NEPA] Reviews.  The guidance builds off of draft guidance released in 2010 and 2014, and outlines methods for federal agencies to quantify, describe, and consider the potential impacts on and effects of climate change into their NEPA review.

The guidance is applicable to all Federal actions subject to NEPA review for which a final Environmental Assessment (EA) or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has not been issued. But if a NEPA process is already in the EIS or EA preparation stage, agencies are asked to balance whether “the additional time and resources needed [to apply the guidance] would be proportionate to the value of the information included.” While CEQ does not expect the guidance to result in the development of new NEPA implementing procedures, agencies are asked to review their existing NEPA procedures and update as appropriate.

The guidance states explicitly that it “does not—and cannot—expand the range of Federal agency actions that are subject to NEPA.” The guidance also does not establish a particular quantity of greenhouse gas emissions that would “significantly” affect the quality of the human environment.  Nor does the guidance require an agency to select the alternative with the lowest net level of emissions or to monetize costs and benefits.  Furthermore, agencies (and project proponents) are not required to fund or conduct original climate change research.  Rather, in developing their analyses, they can “summarize and incorporate by reference the relevant scientific literature.”

The recommendations in the guidance include the following:

  • Agencies should use the projected direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions associated with the proposed action as a proxy for assessing the action’s potential effects on climate change.  However, because “the totality of climate change impacts is not attributable to a single action … a statement that emissions from a proposed Federal action represent only a small fraction of global emissions … is not an appropriate basis for deciding whether or to what extent to consider climate change impacts under NEPA”;
  • If an agency determines that tools are not reasonably available to quantify the impacts on climate change, “the agency should provide a qualitative analysis and its rationale for determining that the quantitative analysis is not warranted”;
  • The analysis of the potential effects on climate change should account for activities that have a “reasonably close causal relationship to the Federal action” and “should take into account both the short- and long-term adverse and beneficial effects using a temporal scope that is grounded in the concept of reasonable foreseeability”;
  • Analyses should include a comparison of “the anticipated levels of [greenhouse gas] emissions from each alternative—including the no action alternative,” and should consider reasonable mitigation measures and alternatives;
  • Analyses of climate change impacts should “focus on those aspects of the human environment that are impacted by both the proposed action and climate change”; and
  • Analyses of land or water management actions should account for potential carbon sequestration, biogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and changes to the carbon stocks.

Notice of the guidance was published in the Federal Register on August 5, 2016.

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New York Public Service Commission Approves “50 by 2030” Clean Energy Standard

The New York Public Service Commission has approved the Clean Energy Standard (CES) for New York.  The CES will require 50% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030.  Under the CES, utilities and other energy suppliers will be required to obtain a certain number of Renewable Energy Credits each year, which will be used to help finance new renewable generation.  Governor Andrew Cuomo had directed the Department of Public Service Staff to develop and propose a CES on December 2, 2015.

In its August 1 order, the Commission noted the importance of “ensuring that markets are created that have the scale and scope to attract investment and reduce costs” in order to capture the value of clean energy. The Commission also emphasized the importance of maintaining a “modern, clean, and diverse” power system.

The CES particularly targets the preservation of existing nuclear generation.  As of April 2017, the CES requires utilities and energy suppliers to purchase Zero-Emissions Credits from nuclear plants, with the goal of “allow[ing] financially-struggling upstate nuclear power plants to remain in operation during New York’s transition to 50 percent renewables by 2030.”

The CES is estimated to add less than $2 per month to the average residential customer’s bill.  Representatives from the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club, a host of unions (including the IBEW), and many others (including climate scientists and other environmental organizations) have praised the CES.

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