Supreme Court Round-Up: Oral Argument in Hughes and MATS Stay Request

UPDATED 02.26.2016 with link to audio recording of Hughes oral argument.

There were two big events in the energy-environmental world at the Supreme Court this week: oral argument in a Federal Power Act case and a request to stay EPA’s MATS rule.

Yesterday, the eight justices held oral argument in the consolidated cases of Hughes v. Talen Energy Marketing, LLC and CPV Maryland, LLC v. Talen Energy Marketing, LLC.*  This is the second set of cases in which the Court is being asked to decide where the Federal Power Act draws the line, or indeed if a line exists, between state and federal regulatory authority in areas of the country with regional energy markets.  Earlier this term, in FERC v. EPSA, the Court addressed whether FERC’s demand response compensation rule intruded on states’ authority over retail markets and found that it did not.  In Hughes, the Court has been asked to look at the flip side of the jurisdictional coin and address whether a state program incentivizing the construction of new electric generation is preempted by the Federal Power Act.

By way of background, the state of Maryland, which is located within PJM’s centralized generation market, identified a need for new generation based on a concern that pending retirements of existing facilities could affect future reliability. To address this concern, Maryland issued a request for proposals for new generation and directed its retail utilities to contract with the winning bidder.  The winning bidder was obligated to construct a plant and make it available within PJM for 20 years.  In exchange, the retail utilities would pay or receive a refund from the winning bidder for the difference between the contract price and the PJM auction payment.

In PJM, wholesale power supply is procured through a three-year forward regional capacity auction (i.e. the 2016 auction will procure supply for delivery in 2019-2020). Generators that “clear” the auction are awarded a capacity payment.

A group of generators that offer supply into the PJM market sued the state alleging, among other things, that Maryland’s program was preempted by the Federal Power Act because it intruded on and/or conflicted with FERC’s Federal Power Act jurisdiction over wholesale electricity sales.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit agreed with the third-party generators and found the state regulation preempted. The U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit found a similar New Jersey program also preempted.  Both the states and CPV, a generation company that won bids in each state, sought cert and asked the Supreme Court to overturn the lower court decisions.  The New Jersey cases are on hold with the Supreme Court and will likely be decided on the basis of the Court’s decision in Hughes.

The petitioners are supported by, among others, the National Governors Association, National Conference of State Legislatures, and the Council of State Governments; the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners; other states from across the country and state ratepayer advocates; and the American Public Power Association and National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. The respondents are supported by, among others, the U.S. government, the Independent Market Monitor for PJM, and private utility industry trade associations.  All briefs are available here.

Given the transformation occurring in the energy industry—e.g. fundamental changes to the nation’s energy portfolio, shifting roles of consumers, compliance with environmental regulations, etc.—the outcome of Hughes has the potential to impact future state resource decisions.  Based on yesterday’s argument, the transcript of which is available here and oral argument here, it is difficult to predict where the Court will land on these cases.  Nevertheless the oral argument made two things clear.  First, regional energy markets have complicated the long standing jurisdictional divide between federal and state regulatory authority over the energy industry, and the Court is still working its way through untangling the morass.  Second, if a majority does affirm the lower court rulings—an outcome that is questionable—it seems likely that such a ruling will be issued on very narrow grounds.  The justices’ questions seemed to indicate that they are wary of finding that states are precluded from taking any action to incentivize the construction of new generation in areas with regional energy markets.

In other Supreme Court news this week, 20 states led by Michigan filed an application with Chief Justice Roberts requesting that the Court stay or enjoin further operation of EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), Docket No. 15A886.  At the end of last year, the D.C. Circuit denied the applicants’ request to vacate the rule pending EPA’s implementation of the Supreme Court mandate that the agency consider costs.  Bolstered by the Supreme Court’s decision earlier this month to stay the Clean Power Plan, the applicants request the Chief Justice issue an order staying MATS pending a cert petition asking that the rule be vacated.  There are several notable differences between the MATS and CPP stay requests, including Justice Scalia’s absence—he was one of the five justices that voted in favor granting the stay to the CPP—and the fact that MATS, unlike the CPP, has previously been reviewed and acted upon by the Court.  Responses to the request are due by March 2, 2016 at 4:00 P.M.

*Spiegel & McDiarmid LLP Partner Scott H. Strauss argued the case on behalf of petitioners, the Maryland Public Service Commission.

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MISO Analyzes State Impacts of Clean Power Plan

Notwithstanding the stay of the Clean Power Plan, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is forging ahead with investigating potential CPP impacts in the MISO region. MISO released the final installment of its near-term CPP modeling at its Planning Advisory Committee meeting last Wednesday, February 17, 2016.  This analysis looks at impacts to MISO’s member-states under different compliance and capacity scenarios.  Prior analyses examined the range of available compliance pathways and regional impacts.

MISO found that both rate- and mass-based compliance will result in generation changes, and as a result, transmission expansion needs will be comparable regardless of which compliance scheme a state elects.  MISO’s modeling also indicates that mass-based compliance will produce a more balanced mix of buyers and sellers in the allowance and Emission Rate Credit (ERC) trading market.  States selling ERCs, however, will see more value under rate-based compliance.

In four of the five different capacity scenarios that MISO modeled, the majority of MISO states had lower production costs under mass-based compliance.  According to MISO, rate-based compliance would be less expensive for states only if the MISO region achieves heavy penetration of renewables and energy efficiency.  Even then, rate-based compliance will be cheaper only for a few states (Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Arkansas); most states will see little cost difference between compliance schemes.

In addition to the various capacity scenarios, MISO ran two “patchwork” compliance scenarios—the first assuming states would split 50-50 between rate-based and mass-based compliance, and the second assuming 70% of states would elect mass-based compliance.  Under the 50-50 scenario, nine MISO states reaped cost advantages under mass-based compliance, compared to just five states (South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, and North Dakota) that saw cheaper costs under rate-based compliance.  Under the 70-30 scenario, however, mass-based compliance was cheaper for fourteen MISO states.

MISO will unveil the initial results of its mid-term analysis, which will look closer at preparing the transmission grid for compliance, at its March Planning Advisory Committee meeting.  MISO says that it will work with stakeholders to determine the effects (if any) of the recent CPP stay on its future planning efforts.

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The New Normal for the Clean Power Plan

Following the Supreme Court’s February 9 decision to stay the Clean Power Plan, a new line has been drawn between states that nonetheless plan to move forward with developing a compliance strategy and those that have halted any such efforts that might have been underway.  The Supreme Court’s short order granting the stay provides no certainty about what the new deadlines for the CPP will be, should it ultimately be upheld on judicial review.  And the death of Justice Scalia, who voted in favor of the stay, raises additional speculation about the CPP’s ultimate fate.

EPA has stated [link eliminated] that it “firmly believes the Clean Power Plan will be upheld when the merits are considered because the rule rests on strong scientific and legal foundations,” and has committed to “continue to provide tools and support” for those states that pursue power plant CO2-reduction efforts.  The White House also issued a statement on the stay.

For those interested in continuing to think about CPP compliance, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) recently released a paper for states (and stakeholders) that may be useful, Constructing State Plans for the Clean Power Plan: The First Questions to Ask.  This report goes back to basics, addressing the questions: when does the state have to take action, who should be responsible, and what questions will help differentiate between implementation choices.  While the section on timing is affected by the stay, the other sections may prove useful as many states and their stakeholders continue to plan for eventual CPP compliance.  In particular, the report notes that although state air regulators are the ones responsible for authoring and submitting the plan, coordination with other state regulators and decision-makers will be important.  Since all plans would be required to consider reliability, the role of state utility regulators would be critical.  State utility regulators would also play key roles in decisions on renewable resources and redispatch, if these building blocks are to be used.  The need to include a variety of stakeholders and state regulators is an important concept for states that intend to continue plan development, as well as stakeholders who may want to provide input in their areas of expertise that extend beyond air pollution.

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Second Installment of DOE’s Quadrennial Energy Review

On February 4, 2016, the Department of Energy began the formal stakeholder engagement process for the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2).  The first meeting was hosted by Department of Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz; Dr. John P. Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; and Dan Utech, Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change.  Unlike other quadrennial reviews, the Quadrennial Energy Review is being released in several installments over a four year period.  The first installment was released in April 2015 focused on modernizing the nation’s energy infrastructure, particularly energy transmission, storage, and distribution systems.  The second installment will take an integrated and systematic approach to studying the U.S. electric system from generation all the way through end use.

QER 1.2 will develop a set of findings and policy recommendations to ensure the reliability, safety, security, affordability, and environmental performance of the nation’s electric grid through 2040. In the February 4th Stakeholder Briefing Memo, the Department of Energy notes that the U.S. electric system is at a “strategic inflection point” as a result of the convergence of a number of significant changes, such as the growing use of natural gas, increasing deployment of renewable energy, retirements of coal and nuclear generation, severe weather and climate change, and growing concerns about physical and cyber security.  The Department of Energy has provided stakeholders with a number of framing questions on topics ranging from distributed energy resources to electricity financing and from jurisdictional boundaries to environmental concerns.

The stakeholder engagement process for QER 1.2 will be similar to that for the first installment and will include formal public meetings, technical workshops, stakeholder briefings, one-on-one meetings, and an online communication portal. Meetings will be held across the country, and their locations and dates will be announced online and in the Federal Register.  The Department of Energy will be accepting comments until July 1, 2016.

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NERC Releases Guidance for States on Clean Power Plan Reliability Concerns

The Clean Power Plan requires states to demonstrate that they considered electric reliability issues in developing their State Implementation Plans (SIP).  At the end of January 2016, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released an assessment of reliability trends, issues, and considerations states should account for when developing their CPP compliance plans.  The assessment is intended to assist states in developing compliance plans by providing a technical framework of the reliability challenges presented by the Clean Power Plan and today’s evolving bulk power system.

Recommendations include:

Cooperation – NERC’s assessment highlights coordination between states, system planning entities, and utilities as paramount to ensuring continued reliability of the bulk power system.

Essential Reliability Services – In order to maintain system reliability in the face of an evolving resource mix, NERC highlights the importance of ensuring generators can provide sufficient voltage control, frequency support, and ramping capability.

Timing of Infrastructure Development – Because new generation and transmission capacity to accommodate resource additions and retirements can require substantial planning and time, NERC encourages states to work with system planning entities and other stakeholders to fully explore reliability issues caused by uncertainty and long lead times.

Operations & Maintenance Implications for Generators – NERC recommends that states consider changes in generators’ maintenance requirements as a result of new cycling patterns as well as fuel supply issues and the risk of increased forced outages, particularly for coal-fired plants, that may result from changes to which resources run, when, and at what output level.

Reserve Margin Assessment – NERC highlights the need for comprehensive assessments of resource adequacy and reserve margin considerations created by the integration of more variable and energy-limited resources and the changing circumstances of conventional generation.

Energy Efficiency Modeling – Because of limited visibility into the true level of capacity energy efficiency may displace, NERC suggests states analyze energy efficiency’s potential impacts on the load forecast.

Emissions TradingNERC encourages states to work with utilities and neighboring states to assess the reliability concerns associated with mass-based or rate-based compliance and to ensure the most beneficial and efficient trading approaches are considered.

Understanding the Reliability Safety Valve – NERC urges states to fully educate themselves on the purpose and use of the Reliability Safety Valve, meant as a backstop, emergency measure for unexpected delays or to address impacts from catastrophic events.

Previous Experience – NERC suggests states look to the Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Canadian and European experience in transitioning toward renewable and distributed resources as case studies for potential compliance strategies.

NERC plans to release a detailed reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan in March 2016.

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