AEO2017 Models U.S. Long-Term Energy Projections

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) this morning.  In its rollout presentation, EIA explains some key takeaways from AEO2017’s modeling, including: the U.S. becomes a net energy exporter over the period modeled in most cases, U.S. crude oil production increases from recent lows, and natural gas production increases.  AEO2017 sees low natural gas prices and renewable tax credits as drivers of natural gas and renewables as the primary sources of new generation, even if the CPP is not implemented (although the CPP, if implemented, would contribute to the retirement of older, less efficient, fossil fuel-fired units).  AEO2017 also projects that residential and commercial consumption will remain relatively flat or decline slightly because of improved equipment and efficiency standards, despite growth.