Bipartisan Budget Deal Passed

Posted on February 9, 2018 by Anjali Patel

Early this morning Congress passed and the President signed into law a two-year budget deal. The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018:

  • Increases the discretionary spending caps for nondefense spending to $579 billion in FY2018 and $597 billion in FY2019, a total increase and for defense spending to $629 billion in FY2018 and $647 billion in FY2019, a total increase from current spending levels of $131 billion and $165 billion, respectively, over the two years. The increase in nondefense spending includes $20 billion towards energy, water, broadband, and transportation infrastructure projects.
  • Includes $89.3 billion in additional disaster relief funding. The funding is primarily directed towards initiatives related to addressing the 2017 hurricanes (e.g. Harvey, Maria, Irma) and wildfires, and includes $13 million to the Department of Energy “for necessary expenses related to the consequences of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, including technical assistance related to electric grids.” The disaster relief funding also includes over $15 billion to the Army Corps of Engineers to construct flood and storm damage reduction and shoreline protection projects, and $23.5 billion for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund.
  • Extends certain energy tax credits including credits related to residential energy property (e.g. residential solar electric, solar water heater, fuel cell, and small wind), biodiesel and biofuel production, Indian coal, renewable energy resources qualifying under Sections 45 and 48 of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC);
  • Modifies the credit for the production from advanced nuclear power facilities to authorize the reallocation and transfer of any unutilized national megawatt capacity; and
  • Enhances the tax credit for entities using carbon capture and storage technology.
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EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Shows U.S. Could be Net Energy Exporter By 2022

Posted on February 6, 2018 by Katherine O'Konski

Today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its 2018 Annual Energy Outlook.  The report includes projections of U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on a Reference Case,* which takes into account existing laws and policies and assumes they remain unchanged throughout the projection period, as well as six side cases incorporating different assumptions that reflect market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties affecting energy markets.**  The Outlook indicates that strong domestic production of shale, tight oil, and natural gas, paired with relatively flat energy demand, allows the U.S. to become a net energy exporter over the projection period of the Reference Case and four of six side cases.  In the Reference Case, the U.S. becomes a net energy exporter in 2022.

The U.S. has been a net energy importer since 1953.  Historically and in EIA’s projections, most U.S. energy trade is in crude oil and petroleum products.  In the Reference Case, U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum imports will decline (although the U.S. will remain a net importer of crude oil and petroleum) and exports of liquefied natural gas will grow.

Other key findings with respect to the Reference Case include:

  • Increases in energy efficiency temper growth in energy demand throughout the projection period.
  • Almost all new electricity generation capacity is fueled by natural gas and non-hydroelectric renewables after 2022.  Natural gas consumption is projected to grow the most on an absolute basis, while renewables consumption is projected to grow the most on a percentage basis.
  • Production of shale gas resources, as well as crude oil and petroleum products, is projected to increase through most of the Reference Case projection period, but will start to decline toward the end of the projection period as less productive areas are developed.

EIA has published an article on the report’s release, and has also made available a webcast of the release event.

* The Reference Case does not include implementation of the Clean Power Plan, though it does consider how a number of current state and regional policies—including the Illinois Future Energy Jobs Act, the New York Clean Energy Standard, the Maryland Clean Energy Jobs Act, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative—affect the projected electric generation mix.

** The side cases include a High Oil Price Case and Low Oil Price Case, a High Economic Growth Case and Low Economic Growth Case, as well as a High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology Case (assumes high resource availability and low cost of production) and a Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology Case (assumes low resource availability and high production costs).

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Tales of Weather and Wind

Posted on February 1, 2018 by Jessica Bell

The Weather Channel’s United States of Climate Change site has collections of stories from across the country about climate change.  The stories range from adjusting bison grazing habits in South Dakota as a way to sequester carbon, to the impact of heat stress on malt barley used in beer in Montana, to a graphic narrative about the 10,000 people originally from the Marshall Islands currently living in Arkansas.

The site also covers more traditional renewables issues, such as a story about the first offshore wind farm in America, located off the coast of Rhode Island.  This wind farm, developed by Deepwater Wind, sits three miles off of Block Island, which was previously powered by on-island diesel generators.  Power from the 30 MW, five-turbine farm is sold via a 20-year power purchase agreement with National Grid.  Commercial operations began in December 2016.  While wind is expected to be the largest renewable generation source in the upcoming year, it remains to be seen whether more projects will be developed offshore, where they have historically been particularly controversial (notably so in the case of Cape Wind).

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Department of Defense Reports on Climate Change Vulnerabilities

Posted on January 30, 2018 by Jeff Bayne

The Department of Defense has issued a report entitled Climate-Related Risk to DoD Infrastructure: Initial Vulnerability Assessment Survey (SLVAS), as directed by Senate Report 114-237.  In the report, the Department of Defense explains that there are several ways in which climate change can affect national security, particularly through the increased frequency of extreme weather events impacting critical infrastructure and military bases.  The SLVAS is “the first step in an on-going process to manage the risks associated with climate to the [Department of Defense] mission, installations, and ranges.”  The report surveys over 3,500 installations and associated sites maintained by the Military Departments around the world, including the approximately 500 sites within 2 km of coastal or tidal zones. It focuses on observed effects from past severe weather events, including wildfire, drought, wind, extreme temperature, storm-surge flooding, and non-storm-surge flooding.

The results of the SLVAS show that over half of the sites reported that they had assets affected by severe weather events.  The highest numbers of reported effects were from drought, wind, and non-storm-surge-related flooding.  Approximately 10 percent of sites were affected by extreme temperature.  The types of assets most likely to be affected by one or more severe weather events were: (1) airfield operations, (2) transportation infrastructure, (3) energy infrastructure, (4) training/range facilities, and (5) water/wastewater systems.  The report found that sites reporting one or more effects were geographically dispersed, similar to those sites reporting no effects.  However, the SLVAS notes that this “may have more to do with the nature of a qualitative survey completed by hundreds of different users” than with differences among the sites themselves.

The SLVAS concludes with feedback on the survey results from the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force.  The Navy reported that 73 percent of its sites had some effect from past extreme weather events, while the Air Force reported that 60 percent of its sites were effected.  All four military departments indicated that they were updating their existing planning and climate resilience considerations in light of the SLVAS results.

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EIA Reports Carbon Dioxide Emissions by State

Posted on January 25, 2018 by Anjali Patel

Earlier this week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released Energy-Related Carbon-Dioxide Emissions by State, 2000-2015, providing data and analysis on state-level carbon dioxide emissions. Emission data in this report is based on the location where the fuel is combusted (e.g. the generator’s location), rather than where the energy is consumed.

The report provides nine data sets and accompanying analysis covering, among other things:

  • Total annual CO2 emissions by state for the years 2000 and 2005-2015;
  • Total CO2 emissions in 2015 by state and fuel type (coal, petroleum, natural gas);
  • Total CO2 emissions for 2015 by state and sector (commercial, electric power, residential, industrial, transportation);
  • Total annual per-capita emissions by state for the years 2000 and 2005-2015;
  • Annual energy intensity (i.e. the amount of energy consumed per unit of economic output) by state for the years 2000 and 2005-2015;
  • Annual carbon intensity (i.e. the energy fuel mix) by state for the years 2000 and 2005-2015;
  • Annual carbon intensity of the economy (i.e. energy intensity and carbon intensity combined) by state for the years 2000 and 2005-2015; and
  • The ten states with the highest per capita emissions and the ten states with the lowest per capital emissions and their net electricity trade values. The index reflects whether a state is a net exporter or importer of electricity.

Notable findings include:

  • Between 2000 and 2015, total carbon emissions declined in 41 states (and in the District of Columbia), but increased in nine states;
  • Out of the three fuels reported on, petroleum had the highest share of carbon dioxide emissions in 2015;
  • The electric power and transportation sectors contribute the highest share of total CO2 emissions in 2015;
  • Wyoming—the second largest producer of energy, but the state with the lowest population density in the lower 48 states—had the highest emissions per capita in 2015;
  • The states with the highest rates of emissions per capita in 2015 also tended to have higher energy-intensity and higher carbon intensity values;
  • States that were net exporters of electricity tended to have higher per capita emissions than those that are net importers.

EIA has also made available the data sets in excel format here.

 

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