Energy Information Administration’s 2016 Annual Energy Outlook Takes an In-Depth Look at Clean Power Plan

On Monday, June 21, 2016, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Issues in Focus report on the Clean Power Plan (CPP).  The report, part of EIA’s soon-to-be released 2016 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), offers a deeper dive into the emissions and electricity price impacts of various CPP compliance paths, as well as a “No CPP” case, which assumes that the CPP is voided and not replaced by comparable emissions limitations.

EIA projects that under the Reference case, which assumes all states choose mass-based compliance, total electric power sector carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will be 35% below 2005 levels and remain constant through 2040. Under the CPP Rate case, which assumes all states elect rate-based compliance, EIA predicts similar reductions through 2030, but expects a slight rise in emissions over the following ten years, reporting that 2040 emissions were projected to be only 32% below 2005 numbers.

Regardless of compliance methodology, EIA finds that in all cases that assumed CPP compliance, power sector carbon dioxide emissions are to be 18% to 21% lower in 2030 and 16% to 21% lower in 2040 than emissions projected under the No CPP case. In addition to gains in emissions reductions, EIA finds that the CPP cases modeled resulted in more retirements of fossil-fired generation capacity and greater increases in renewable resources. Even in the No CPP case, EIA projects increases in renewable energy generation across all regions between 2015 and 2030.

EIA’s analysis also projects higher retail electricity price impacts under CPP cases than under the No CPP case. According to EIA’s projections, the Reference and the CPP Rate cases yield similar increases in retail electricity prices of 1% to 5% above prices in the No CPP case between 2022 and 2030, and remain fairly constant thereafter at 3% above the No CPP from 2030 onward.  Other CPP cases modeled demonstrate greater price increases.  For the CPP Extended case, which assumes emissions targets will be ratcheted down following the CPP’s initial compliance period, electricity prices in 2040 are 3% higher than in the Reference case and 6% higher than in the No CPP case.  Likewise, EIA projects that the CPP Allocation to Generators case, which assumes that all regions meet mass-based targets and that carbon allowances are allocated to electricity generators instead of load-serving entities, will result in price increases roughly 1% higher than in the Reference case and 4% higher than in the No CPP case between 2022 and 2030.

The full 2016 AEO is expected July 7, 2016, and will include additional cases and discussion.

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EPA Releases Clean Energy Incentive Program Proposed Rule

UPDATED 08.10.2016 with information about Federal Register publication.

Today, EPA released its proposal containing design details for the optional Clean Energy Incentive Program (CEIP).  Once published in the Federal Register, there will be a 60-day comment period on the proposal.; until then, the proposal is available in pre-publication form, and. EPA has also posted a fact sheet and data tables containing each state’s and tribe’s pro rata share of the matching pool of allowances (mass-based) and emission rate credits (rate-based).  EPA plans to hold a public hearing on the proposal in Chicago on August 3, 2016.

The proposal was published in the Federal Register on June 30, 2016.

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Eighth Circuit Affirms Invalidation of Minnesota Climate Law

Yesterday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit issued a decision in North Dakota v. Heydinger that affirmed a federal district court’s decision invalidating a Minnesota statute that prohibited the importing of coal-fired electricity into Minnesota.

The opponents of the statute put forth three reasons for why the Minnesota statute was invalid. First, they argued that the state statute was preempted by the Federal Power Act.  Second, they argued that the state statute was also preempted by the Clean Air Act.  Finally, they claimed that the Minnesota statute was unconstitutional because it violated the dormant Commerce Clause (which, as relevant here, invalidates state statutes that exert control over activities taking place entirely outside of that state’s borders).

The district court had held that the Minnesota statute violated the dormant Commerce Clause but did not address either preemption argument. While the Eighth Circuit affirmed the decision to invalidate the statute, the three judges on the panel disagreed in their reasoning and each offered a separate opinion:

    • Judge Loken stated that the statute was unconstitutional under the dormant Commerce Clause. He reasoned that because a non-Minnesota generator cannot guarantee that no electrons flow to Minnesota when it injects electricity into the MISO grid as part of a contract with a non-Minnesota customer, the Minnesota state statute regulates transactions taking place wholly outside of Minnesota.  Judge Loken did not address either of the preemption arguments.
    • Judge Murphy disagreed with Judge Loken’s dormant Commerce Clause analysis, explaining that electrons do not actually “flow” and there is no way to trace whether electric power from a specific source enters Minnesota.  As a result, Judge Murphy interpreted the statute as applying to contracts in which a Minnesota utility purchases power from a source in a different state, and thus it does not regulate transactions that have nothing to do with Minnesota.  However, Judge Murphy did hold that the Minnesota statute was preempted by the Federal Power Act because it regulates the wholesale sales of electric energy in interstate commerce, over which FERC has exclusive jurisdiction.  She did not discuss the Clean Air Act preemption argument.
    • Judge Colloton held that the Minnesota statute was preempted by both federal statutes and, as a result, did not discuss the dormant Commerce Clause issue.  He agreed with Judge Murphy’s reasoning about why the state statute was preempted by the Federal Power Act.  He also held that the Minnesota statute was preempted by the Clean Air Act because it included a provision that would allow the import of non-Minnesota power if the non-Minnesota generator met certain offset requirements.  Judge Colloton held that this conflicted with the federal regulatory scheme that Congress created in the Clean Air Act and is therefore preempted.

 

 

 

 

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It’s Been Twenty Years Since a New Nuclear Reactor Went Online, That Changed Last Week

On June 3, 2016 the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced that the Watts Bar nuclear Unit 2, located near Spring City in eastern Tennessee, was officially connected to the power grid and generating electricity.  Watts Bar Unit 2 is the first nuclear unit to come online in the United States since its sister unit, Watts Barr Unit 1, was connected in 1996.

Watts Bar Unit 2, itself, has a long history.  TVA began construction on the unit in 1973, and though it completed the major structures, the work was suspended in 1985.  Construction recommenced in 2007 and in October 2015 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a full power Facility Operating License for the unit.  As part of the licensing process, TVA was required to demonstrate that the unit complied with current regulations including the NRC’s orders implementing Fukushima actions—actions based on lessons learned from the March 2011 earthquake that damaged nuclear power reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi facility in Japan.

Watts Barr 2 will produce electricity by using nuclear fission to generate heat; the heat will be used to produce steam which will in turn operate a turbine.  When run at full power—which TVA expects to be doing by the end of the summer—Watts Barr 2 may supply up to 1,150  MW of electricity to the grid.  In the interim, TVA will be continuing to test the unit as it slowly ramps up power production.

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Supreme Court Declines to Review MATS

Today, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in Case No. 15-1152, Michigan v. EPA. Twenty states had asked the Court to review the D.C. Circuit’s decision to remand the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) without vacating the rule.  EPA, certain generators, and a group of states, local governments, and public health organizations opposed cert.

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